What PA-18 means to North Carolina

by | Mar 14, 2018 | 2018 elections, Editor's Blog, North Carolina | 9 comments

Last night’s election results sent Republicans into full-fledged panic mode. Democrats won a Congressional district in Pennsylvania that Trump won by 19 points in 2016.  Even before the ballots had been fully counted, the nature of the race was evident. As conservative columnist John Podhoretz tweeted, “It doesn’t matter what happens now. What matters is that the Dem surge/GOP depression is very, very real.” Democrats turned out at significantly higher numbers than Republicans despite a $10 million investment in the race and a Trump visit last week.

What really scares them, though, is one statistic. Over 100 Congressional districts across the country are more competitive than PA-18. Democrats only need 24 seats to take control of Congress.

In North Carolina, we have two GOP-held seats that Trump won by less than 10% and we have five that were closer than the one Democrats picked off last night. Both NC-13 and NC-02 are on everybody’s radar because Trump won the districts by 9.4% and 9.6%, respectively. He won NC-09 (Pittenger), NC-06 (Walker), NC-08 (Hudson), NC-05 (Foxx) and NC-07 (Rouzer) by less than 18 points.

After last night, the Republican problem in the suburbs is becoming more evident. As one GOPer tweeted, “Good-bye GOP suburbs.” In North Carolina, according to an excellent analysis by Dr. Michael Bitzer of Catawba College, those competitive districts are all urban/suburban. NC-02 is the most urban/suburban district held by Republicans with only 16% considered rural. NC-13 follows with only 20% of the population living in rural areas. All of the other districts that are more competitive than PA-18 have less than a third of their population living in rural areas.

Districts aren’t the only thing that matter, though. Democrats fielded a candidate who fit the district and put together a strong campaign. Lamb was a first-time candidate who ran as a centrist Democrat. He was unencumbered by a voting record that might have hurt him and he raised enough money to make the race competitive. In other words, he brought a fresh perspective and the resources win.

The GOP should certainly be concerned about their loss last night. It’s clearly a signal that Trump is a problem for their party. Democrats, though, should take note. Politically, Lamb looks a lot more Heath Shuler or Mike McIntyre than David Price or Alma Adams. Both Shuler and McIntyre went to Congress from the private sector and listened more to their constituents than to the activist wing of the Democratic Party. That’s part of the recipe for Democrats winning conservative-leaning districts in North Carolina in November.

9 Comments

  1. randolph voller

    Both Lamb and I have a connection to this district.

    My grandfather lived in Mt. Lebanon while our family lived near Canonsburg.

    My father worked as executive in the steel industry while my sister and I attended a Catholic School in Bethel Park.
    The suburban portion of this district is called the “South Hills” and would not be out of place near Charlotte, Cary or Raleigh.

    That said, it is important to note that newly elected Congressman Lamb has a long familial connection to the Democratic Party. His grandfather served as the Democratic Majority Leader in the Pennsylvania State Legislature and later served as Secretary of Legislative Affairs under Governor Casey, while Conor’s uncle is the Controller of the City of Pittsburgh.

    And Lamb has defended Social Security and Medicare with vigor against Paul Ryan’s plans; strongly defended union rights and attacked Trump’s tax plan as a giveaway to the wealthy.

    Lamb also was full throated in support of reforming the student loan system and affordable healthcare.
    He sounds like a hybrid between a progressive and a centrist.

    Perhaps he is the foretelling of a new strain of pragmatic progressives that run competitively in congressional districts across the country.

  2. jerry williamson

    I have to agree with chabord here. I don’t see Heath Shuler in Conor Lamb and even less Mike McIntyre. When did either of them side so strongly with unions?

    • Peter Harkins

      Respectfully, Jerry, when in recent NC history (past coupl’a centuries) have unions had any strength? Sporadic strike actions in the textile and tobacco industries uniformly failed here during the 20th century. How many of us remember Luther Hodges sending the National Guard into Henderson in ’59?
      ,
      I recall Wilbur Hobby, president of the NC AFL-CIO, collected fewer than 7.5% of the statewide vote in the first gubernatorial primary in ’72. Came in 4th behind Dr. Reginald Hawkins, an African-American dentist from Charlotte.

      Tar Heels have never been very union oriented (all kinds of reasons). Might go a long to to explaining Shuler/McIntyre reticence toward soliciting union support? 😉

      Uncle Grumpy

  3. chaboard

    “Politically, Lamb looks a lot more Heath Shuler or Mike McIntyre than David Price or Alma Adams. ”

    Not sure I agree. Lamb ran enthusiastically on universal healthcare (PP polling yesterday says this was the winning issue) and expanded background checks and against the GOP tax cuts. On the issues I think he was a LOT closer to Price than to a conservative like Shuler. His major break towards ‘centrism’ wasn’t on issues – it was refusing to support Pelosi. That and his central casting background. Can’t think of much at all that he has in common with Shuler/McIntyre types.

    What am I missing?

    • Charlie Board

      Lamb also actively campaigned as strongly pro-union, unapologetically pro-choice, against Social Security cuts and for medical marijuana. I’m actually having a hard time coming up with ANY issues where he is closer to Shuler than Price. There must be a couple – but not on any of the main things he ran on.

    • Margaret Parker

      You aren’t missing a thing.

      I worked hard to elect Shuler, but when he opposed the ACA, I felt betrayed. Healthcare, workers rights, income equality, education…these issues are more important to this progressive than supporting Pelosi or even being pro-choice. Lamb seems very authentic and his good looks are about all he has in common with Shuler.

    • Thomas Mills

      He opposes single-payer healthcare, opposes a ban on assault weapons, supports the president’s trade policies and is personally pro-life, though he says abortion should be legal. That’s pretty centrist in today’s Democratic Party and likely about where Shuler or McIntyre would be if they were in Congress. I think he fits the district well. Here’s what the media is saying about him:
      ABC News: “If Lamb wins, he could become one of the most conservative Democrats in office.”
      Former Indy Week editor and NC native Bob Moser in Rolling Stone: “Lamb, for all his fresh-faced charm, ran and won as a Trump Democrat – a flashback to the “Republican Lite” candidacies the Democrats specialized in during the Clinton ’90s and ’00s.”

  4. Drew Bridges

    If “fit” is the issue, I see no better candidate for NC 2nd District than democrat Ken Romley to oppose the republican incumbent.

    • That guy

      My dearly departed Labrador would be an improvement over the execrable George Holding in NC02.

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